In all poker tournaments, the mindset of the competing players shifts just before the pay-out seats are finally reached. This is called The Bubble and in a SNG Tournament the bubble would be reached if there are three places being paid but there are actually four players left. When you reach this stage, the tendency is to tighten up and play narrower ranges and wait until someone gets knocked out so that you can coast into the money.
In reality though your stack can get seriously eroded at these stages and especially during SNG’s where with only four players remaining the blinds and ante’s are coming fast. Often at this crucial stage of the game, it is correct to fold some big hands.
Here’s an example: You are in the big blind with a 5500 stack and have Ah-Kh. The UTG player who also has a 5500 stack shoves all-in when the blinds are at 300-600. The other two remaining players only have stacks of 1000 each and are almost all-in.
This is not just a situation where folding is proper but you should also fold with hands like J-J and Q-Q. This might stagger many players but it is definitely the right decision. The reason for this lies in the amount of equity that you have in the prize pool both before the hand and after it. Winning the all-in confrontation and losing will reduce your total equity in the prize pool to zero as you will be eliminated from the competition.
However if you won this hand then the total of your opponent’s equity is not passed to you but divided between you and the other two players. This is because no matter how many chips you might win, you cannot get more than 50% of the prize pool. At this moment the two short stacks are guaranteed to make the money but they will be guaranteed if one of the two big stacks gets knocked out.
The extra equity that they gain comes from the losing player. What this means is that someone in your position stands to lose far more than they gain by getting involved with a strong hand and losing.
You must be capable of strategic thinking in poker tournaments because it is often a mistake to play your hand strength and nothing else. It is way better to have two ways to win a pot, either by getting your opponent to fold or by winning the pot in a showdown.
